Spanish olive oil market showed signs of stabilization as the 2025 harvest commenced, with early reports indicating a production increase. The International Olive Council reported that producer prices for extra virgin olive oil in Jaén, Spain, averaged €358.5 per 100 kg in the first week of July, reflecting a 52.6% decrease from the same period last year, signaling a potential shift after two years of high prices. The 2024/2025 season saw Spain produce 1.41 million tons, with current mill inventories standing at 666,458 tons, providing a buffer as the new harvest begins. Between October 2024 and May 2025, olive oil exports from major markets rose by 6.4% compared to the prior year, with 74,914 tons exported in May alone, including 55,862 tons of extra virgin olive oil. The average unit value of EU extra-EU exports dropped to €554 per 100 kg in May, a 42.4% year-on-year decline, while extra virgin olive oil reached €595 per 100 kg. Industry analysts noted that large bottling companies are reducing inventories ahead of the new season, with market activity expected to slow in August due to summer holidays, resuming in September with initial harvest insights. The 2025/2026 season forecasts suggest a global production range of 3.8 to 4.1 million tons, potentially leading to an oversupply by 2026, influencing future pricing trends.
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